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Card Odds In Spades

by | Dec 21, 2017 | Spades Encyclopedia |

Do you know how many cards are there in a standard deck of cards? The correct answer is – 52.
There are many card games with different rules and variations. One of the main differences between them is the number of cards they are played with. Generally, for most of them, you will need a standard deck of cards, but there are some that require fewer and some are played with several decks.

To play a classic trick-taking partnership card game like Spades you need exactly 52 cards (plus jokers in some spades variations). There is an almost endless number of possibilities in which they can be combined.

Have you asked yourself:

  • Are probabilities important?
  • What is the probability of me getting the ace of spades?
  • What is the probability of me getting “X” number of cards from the same suit?

If you want to learn the answer to those questions – keep reading!

What is the probability of getting the ace of spades?

Sometimes the most desired card, other times the card you least need. In a standard deck of cards for spades, there are 4 Aces. The odds of picking any card and getting an ace are 4/52 (or around 8% probability if you prefer it said like that). This means that the probability of picking up the top value card as your next is exactly 1.92%! Multiply that by the 13 cards you have in your deck and it makes the probability of having Ace of Spades in your hand 25%.

Keep this in mind the next time you are tempted to make a Blind Nil bid at the beginning of the game. Unless the situation is “All-or-nothing”, you may quickly lose the whole game.

What is the probability of getting 13 cards of spades?

Have you ever had a hand with all 13 cards of spades? We will take a bold guess that the answer is “No”.

The probability of getting all of the trump cards in any order are really low. Talking in numbers, the odds of this happening are once in 635,013,559,600 times;

The odds of getting 13 cards of the same suit in any order are 1 in 158,753,389,900;

The odds of getting 13 spades in the correct order are 1 in 3,954,242,643,910,000,000,000;

If you ever had 13 spades, you must be a truly lucky person! The probability of winning the lotto is higher than having all 13 in one deal!

What is the probability of getting “X” number of the same cards from each of the four suits?

We thought that it is most likely for a player to have in his hand 3 suits with 3 cards and one with 4 (4-3-3-3). However, after doing some calculations, we came to the conclusion that the most frequent combination consists of 4-4-3-2 cards of a suit. Following this logic, we can assume that the chances of our opponents having the same combination are pretty high.

Hand pattern probabilities

CombinationProbability
4-4-3-221%
5-3-3-215.5%
5-4-3-113%
5-4-2-210.6%
4-3-3-310.5%
6-3-2-25.6%
6-4-2-14.8%
6-3-3-13.4%
5-5-2-13.2%
4-4-4-13%
7-3-2-11.9%
6-4-3-01.3%
5-4-4-01.2%
5-5-3-00.9%
6-5-1-10.7%
6-5-2-00.65%
7-2-2-00.51%
any other handLess than 1.5%

Taking all this into consideration we can say one thing! When we play against someone who has already played 4 cards of the same suit, there is a big chance that those are all the cards he has from this exact suit. If you can keep track of the cards, you can keep track of the number of cards from each suit as well. Keeping track of things like this can help you a lot while playing!

What is the probability of getting “X” number of cards from the same suit?

If you’ve got 13 cards, the odds are good that you will have at least four cards from one of the suits. However, it’s actually more likely that your longest suit will have five cards! If you have five spades in the best case player 2 will have 3 cards of spades, player 3 will have 3 cards of spades, player 4 will have 2 cards of spades. Knowing that may help a lot. You can make a strategy about how to play the cards in your hand and the odds of winning will be in your favour.

ProbabilitiesOdds
getting all of the trump cards in any order1/635,013,559,600
getting 13 cards of the same suit1/158,753,389,900
getting 13 spades in the correct order1/3,954,242,643,910,000,000,000
4 cards of the same suit35%
5 cards of the same suit44%
6 cards of the same suit16.5%
7 cards of the same suit3.5%
8 cards of the same suit0.47%
9 cards of the same suit0.037%
10 cards of the same suit0.0017%
11 cards of the same suit0.000036%
12 cards of the same suit0.00000032%

What is the probability of getting a face card or non-face card?

Do you know that the Kings, the Queens, and the Jacks are called “face cards” because they have pictures of their names? The rest of the deck consists of non-faced cards

With a standard deck of cards the probability of getting a non-face card is 77% and for a face card, it is 23%. So normally you will have in your hand 3 times more non-face cards, then face cards.

There is only one possible conclusion! No matter how good you are Lady Luck must always be on your side. Even, if you can memorize the whole deck of cards while playing, if you don’t get the right cards you can still lose.

Try your luck at VIP Spades and see, if you can get the right cards today! May the odds be with you!

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